OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE MISSOURI INDEPENDENT BANKERS ASSOCIATION

Pub. 4 2024 Issue 5

MIBA Lobbying Report

Picture of By Andy Arnold, Arnold & Associates

By Andy Arnold, Arnold & Associates

The Missouri Primary Election is over, and we now have a better idea of the players for the November Election.

The statewide races candidates are settled: Governor (Kehoe V Quade), Lt. Governor (Wassinger V Brown), Secretary of State (Hoskins V Phifer), Treasurer (Malek V Osmack) and Attorney General (Bailey V Gross). We project all of the Republican candidates winning in November.

As for the Senate, we believe there are only three Senate seats in play for the General Election: 11th (Sauls V Nicola), 15th (Pereles V David Gregory) and 17th (Nurrenbern V Nolte). We also believe the Democrat candidate has the edge in all three districts.

We project 14 of the 17 Senate Districts up this cycle were settled by the primary election, even if there is a General Election opponent: 1st (Beck), 3rd (Henderson), 5th (Roberts), 7th (Lewis), 9th (Washington), 13th (Mosley), 19th (Webber), 21st (Kurtis Gregory), 23rd (Schnelting), 25th (Bean), 27th (Burger), 29th (Moon), 31st (Brattin) and 33rd (Hudson). If the Democrats hold the two contested Democrat seats (11 and 17) and flip the 15th and 19th, there will be a net pick-up of two Democrat seats, making the numbers 22 Republicans and 12 Democrats.

As for the House, there will be at least 55 new members due to term limits, members not wanting to run for re-election or members running for higher office before term limits kick in. There are over 100 contested House races going into November, so this will be an interesting cycle.

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